(Original analysis: NOAA/PSL )Īccording to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, it's been the warmest start to any year on record through March 23 in New York City, Philadelphia and Baltimore.
Areas of higher pressure are highlighted by the "H" and the green and yellow contours over eastern Canada and the East. Areas of persistent lower pressure are highlighted by the "L" and the blue contours over the West and Plains. The best players in baseball: That’s how often they get a hit.Anomaly in the upper-level weather pattern over the U.S. “But, of course, 30 percent events happen all the time. “People might look at that and say, ‘It’s more likely that it won’t happen,’” Mr. In the case of this weekend’s storm, as of Friday morning it estimated that New York City had a 30 percent to 50 percent chance of receiving at least eight inches of snow in 24 hours. It has also begun publishing a different type of map, one that shows the chances of snowfall reaching a certain threshold. It now publishes not only the standard weather maps showing snow bands, but also broader estimates, like the ones used to make our charts. Officials at the National Weather Service understand that the public needs a best-estimate forecast and some communication about uncertainty, and scientists there have been consulting with experts like Professor Ripberger in recent years. As in: It must be nice to be wrong at your job all the time. He says overshooting a snowfall total is most likely to get the kind of reader email that he calls “the classic must be nice” message. “But you want to be cautious, because once you put out a forecast on the higher end, backing down the ladder is really hard.” “From a meteorological perspective, we want to communicate this as best we can,” he said. He’s learned through experience that people tend to remember large predicted numbers, so he tends to avoid them when a storm is still several days away. John Homenuk, a meteorologist with the forecasting website New York Metro Weather, said he tends to focus on ranges no larger than three or four inches, though his forecasts also usually emphasize uncertainty and alternative scenarios. Lamers said.īut telling the public that somewhere between zero and 18 inches of snow could fall in an area is unsatisfying. “Small shifts in the snowfall track could have big implications for New York City,” Mr. Other parts of the Eastern Seaboard had smaller ranges of likely snowfall because they sat closer to the middle of the storm’s predicted path. New York City sat right on the edge of the anticipated storm, meaning that a small shift in the storm’s course could spell either a complete miss or a much larger snowfall. It was emerging from the collision of two independent weather systems.
The storm headed for New York this weekend presented particular complications.
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